The scientific literature broadly supports the core of this claim, though with more nuance than the post allows.

On calorie surplus as the driver of fat storage. Controlled feeding trials that hold calories constant while varying carbohydrate and fat content consistently fail to show a carbohydrate-specific fattening effect. Hall and Guo's meta-analysis of isocaloric controlled feeding studies found that substituting carbohydrate for fat produced small differences that actually favored the lower-fat (higher-carbohydrate) diets: energy expenditure was about 26 kcal/day greater and body fat loss about 16 g/day greater on lower-fat diets. These are physiologically trivial differences, and critically they run in the opposite direction from the "carbs make you fat" hypothesis.

On free-living outcomes. The DIETFITS randomized trial followed 609 overweight adults for 12 months and found no significant difference in weight change between a healthy low-fat and a healthy low-carbohydrate diet (roughly 5.3 kg versus 6.0 kg lost, with the confidence interval crossing zero). Neither genotype pattern nor baseline insulin secretion predicted which diet worked better. This is a direct test of the proposition that carbohydrate restriction has a special weight-loss property, and it did not find one.

On why cutting carbs produces fast initial weight loss. Glycogen is stored with roughly 3 grams of water per gram of glycogen. Depleting glycogen stores on a low-carbohydrate diet releases that bound water, producing rapid scale weight loss in the first days that is largely water rather than fat, and which reverses when carbohydrates are reintroduced. This directly addresses the post's implied point about people misattributing low-carb results.

On carbohydrate conversion to fat. Human de novo lipogenesis (conversion of dietary carbohydrate into fat) is limited under normal conditions. Overfeeding studies with glucose and sucrose found that de novo lipogenesis increased but did not contribute greatly to total fat balance. The dominant mechanism by which carbohydrate overfeeding increases body fat is indirect: excess carbohydrate is preferentially oxidized, sparing dietary fat from oxidation so that it is stored instead.

The opposing scientific position. A serious minority position exists. Ludwig and colleagues, in a 2021 AJCN perspective co-signed by a substantial group of researchers, argue for the carbohydrate-insulin model, which proposes that the causal direction is reversed: hormonal responses to high-glycemic-load diets drive fat deposition, which then produces increased hunger and reduced energy availability. Hall and colleagues published a formal rebuttal defending the energy balance model. This is an unresolved and active scientific debate about mechanism. Notably, even the carbohydrate-insulin model does not dispute thermodynamics; it disputes what causes the surplus in the first place.

The nuance the post skips. Macronutrient composition can influence how much people spontaneously eat. In Hall's 2021 Nature Medicine inpatient study, participants eating ad libitum on a low-fat, high-carbohydrate plant-based diet consumed substantially fewer calories per day than on an animal-based ketogenic diet. That result contradicts the carbohydrate-insulin model's prediction, but it demonstrates the broader point that diet composition affects appetite and intake. Food choice is therefore not irrelevant to calorie balance, even if no macronutrient is inherently fattening.